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OS Trends Over Time: XP vs. Vista, 32-bit vs. 64-bit
Jon Bach (President)

OS Trends Over Time: XP vs. Vista, 32-bit vs. 64-bit

Posted on March 22, 2009 by Jon Bach

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This weekend, Puget Systems updated many of our preconfigured systems to default to Windows Vista 64-bit. This is in direct response to a dramatic increase in popularity of 64-bit over the last few months. As part of my research in making this call, I took a look at our operating system sales over the last few years. I found the data interesting, so I thought I'd share that data, as well as my thoughts!

Of course, it makes perfect sense that 64-bit operating systems are becoming more popular. With the price of memory constantly dropping over time, we have now reached a point where it is most common for us to sell a new computer with 4GB of memory or more. In fact, we're not too far off from dropping 1GB sticks of memory entirely. Even more, the recent release of Core i7 has encouraged even larger memory configurations. Since Core i7 has three memory channels, memory is installed in sets of three. Not wanting to limit their upgrade potential by populating half their memory slots with 1GB modules, we find that most people are using 6GB memory in the Core i7 systems.

However, there is a force at play against the use of 64-bit: Windows XP! This aging operating system is still a staple with businesses, and home users who are wary to move to an OS they have heard so many negative things about (Windows Vista). If you have decided to stay with Windows XP, you have essentially decided to stay 32-bit. There is a 64-bit version of Windows XP, but driver support is so poor that it is rarely a feasible option.

I've stated before that Windows XP is still going strong. Without further ado, I now bring you the raw data from our sales history:

You can see that while Windows XP is slowly decreasing in use over time, the decrease is much less dramatic than you might expect. Soon after the launch of Windows Vista, Windows XP made up about 50% of our operating system sales. Today, it is down only to 30%. I find it particularly interesting that there was a surge in Windows XP usage around the middle of 2008. This correlates to the height of the general public's anti-Vista sentiment, which prompted Microsoft to perform what I thought was a desperate advertising campaign. Named the "Mojave Experiment", its goal was to demonstrate that people simply disliked Windows Vista because that was the public consensus. Micosoft didn't need to worry, however, as this resistance was soon overcome by the sheer need for a 64-bit OS. Its funny to think that the availability of 64-bit drivers is quite possibly the largest factor "forcing" people to adopt Windows Vista.

If we look at only Windows Vista sales, we see a very dramatic change at that same time -- the middle of 2008:

The middle of 2008 is when we started seeing a dramatic movement that started with 32-bit accounting for 80% of our sales, to it only accounting for 20%. I find it very interesting how smooth this transition was. Every month, 64-bit made steady gains. This is what you would expect when the sales are customer-driven. If Puget Systems had been pushing one version over another, you'd see a sudden shift at the time we made an internal company decision. This graph makes me feel really good -- its shows that we really are doing our job of educating our customers, and letting them decide!

As we start to look ahead to Windows 7, we have been talking about whether we'll be offering the 32-bit version at all. In the end, its a bit too early to make any call, so we're just going to sit back and see where demand is when the Windows 7 launch gets closer. But if the last year is any indication, the demand for 32-bit looks like it will be all but gone by the time Windows 7 arrives.


Tags: operating systems, OS, Windows XP, Windows Vista, 32-bit vs 64-bit, XP vs. Vista


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Paul

I love that XP spike in July 08! I remember that peaking of anti-vista. Before I retired I was responsible for managing about 2500 PC's at work, and our vendor (sorry, not you) along with Msoft responded to the outrage and extended the ability of corporate users to still get new machines with XP licenses, even though the average consumer could not. I've not kept track since then, but it was a big deal. But I am sure you know more about that than I!

Posted on 2009-03-23 02:26:45
chevysales

jon, my vista 64 build has been as stable as a rock. once support worked through bios issues and upgraded bios as i sugested there hasn't been a hiccup.

as a matter of fact i check the reliablity feature in vista 64 and if fluctuates between 9.65 and 9.00.

and that only because of some web pages give ie7 a bit of trouble. very close to loading ie8 final to see if that levels off. but as a whole i love vista 64.

Posted on 2009-03-29 04:31:01
rasmasyean

Finally...

It's about time people start comming out of the dark ages. I can't wait untill 64-bit applications start taking off as there is not a bigger market for it.

Posted on 2009-04-14 12:15:56
rasmasyean

EDIT ABOVE^

I meant...there is NOW a bigger market for it.

Posted on 2009-04-14 12:16:56
Marv

Folks buying 64 bit Vista are those who do not have any applications or periperal hardware that is working fine under XP. XP users not folks still in the dark ages. We just want a product that support a smooth transition in an environment where work is just as important as play. I do not believe that 64 bit Vista is that product. With all that power why didn't microsoft give the 64 bit Vista a backwards comptability feature with the 32 bit world where real work is getting done by real users?

Posted on 2009-09-29 01:13:18
Michele Harvey

Will you be doing a comparison of Windows 7 32-bit and 64-bit sales?

Posted on 2009-12-11 20:18:50

Probably not -- we only sold 7 copies of Windows 7 32-bit so far, so we can say that from day one, we're at and expect to always be at 99% 64-bit for Windows 7 sales. I will take a look after a few quarters though, and see if there is anything interesting to report!

Posted on 2009-12-11 20:23:16
Kumaran

Hi,
I got few questions

1.Is it possible for you to update the latest sales trend of 64 bit OS vs 32 bit OS?

2. Do you have any comparison data aobut the Server OS types sales trend like 32 bit win 2k8 with 64 bit win2k8 or 64 bit win 2k8 with 32 bit win 2k3 R2 etc..?

Please post us your valuable comments.

Thanks

Posted on 2010-05-12 07:23:47
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